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Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072203Z - 080000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps some small hail may
acco*pany the stronger pulse storms through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Pulse thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage
and intensity over the past hour or so across central AZ per MRMS
mosaic radar imagery. Afternoon peak heating has encouraged the
mixing of the boundary layer up to 600 mb (per 20Z RAP forecast
soundings), supporting 8+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. This relatively
dry boundary layer is also overspread by 7 C/km mid-level lapse
rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis), which is contributing up to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. These storms have developed off of the higher terrain and
are gradually propagating southward in an environment characterized
by rich monsoonal mid-level moisture and precipitable water values
approaching 1.5 inches. Given the mid-level moisture atop the dry
boundary layer, DCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg in spots, which may
support a couple of severe gusts with the stronger downbursts. While
tropospheric shear is weak overall across the Southwest, 15 kts of
500 mb easterly flow, evident via the TUS 18Z observed sounding and
21Z mesoanalysis, may assist in some convective propagation and
perhaps loose organization across the desert floor this evening.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33931349 34451313 34531219 34331125 34011053 33621033
            33111016 32821007 31891046 31571083 31471119 31501167
            31911291 32321329 32981347 33931349