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Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...TX Concho Valley into Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

Valid 061006Z - 061130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue through dawn,
with potential for hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat also
remains near the warm front.

DISCUSSION...Several strong to potentially severe storms are moving
east-northeast across the Concho Valley region of TX into the Big
Country. The bulk of the ongoing convection is elevated to the north
of a warm front that is gradually moving northward across the
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Moderate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat for large to very
large hail and localized severe gusts with any elevated supercells.
The line segment that earlier organized along a cold front and is
now moving through San Angelo could pose a somewhat greater threat
for strong to severe gusts, in addition to hail with embedded
supercells. 

Farther southwest, increasing convection has been noted along the
trailing cold front/outflow into Crockett County, TX. Convection in
this area is in closer proximity to the warm front and rich surface
moisture. Low-level hodographs remain sufficiently large to support
a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercell that moves
within the vicinity of the warm front early this morning.

..Dean.. 05/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30740160 31650092 32619985 32999917 32989797 31629805
            30979850 30329929 30310159 30740160 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN