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Mesoscale Discussion 1664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Areas affected...Parts of CO...far northeast NM...and southwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071937Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
across southeast CO and along the I-25 corridor this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated severe gusts and marginal hail are the main
concerns, though a landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations reveal an ENE/WSW-oriented
quasi-stationary surface boundary extending from west-central KS
into southeast CO. Efficient diurnal heating/destabilization of a
moist airmass (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest low-level convergence
along the boundary is resulting in deepening boundary-layer cumulus
and isolated convective development. While deep-layer flow/shear is
weak across southeast CO, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a
deeply mixed boundary layer could support isolated severe gusts and
marginal hail with the stronger/deeper updrafts -- especially where
any cold pool congealing occurs. In addition, a landspout tornado or
two will be possible with any deeper updrafts that maintain
residence time along/near the boundary where surface vorticity
should be enhanced. 

Farther north along the I-25 corridor, cumulus continues to deepen
over the higher terrain, and isolated to widely scattered convection
should spread eastward later this afternoon as inhibition continues
to erode. Locally severe gusts and marginal hail will also be the
primary concerns, though a few organized clusters will be possible
given 30-40 kt of effective shear over northern CO. Currently, the
severe threat appears too localized/marginal for a watch, though
convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38590339 38400307 38260261 38490200 38500149 38270122
            37790123 37510140 37200180 37060213 36900264 36840330
            36880435 37100480 37720518 39270539 40020543 40660541
            40920529 40980482 40930448 40430433 39510434 39050401
            38820376 38590339