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Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

Valid 060430Z - 060630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway
across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity.  A few cells may
undergo considerable further intensification acco*panied by
increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong
tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm
development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is
focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a
surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where
boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew
points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the
southwest of Midland/Odessa.  This is contributing to mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection
rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to
undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer
shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along
a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb).  This
environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense
supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
            30760382 31330385 31890394 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN