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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe winds are possible across
parts of Upper Midwest, central High Plains and Arizona this
afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough will move across the northern High Plains today
as west-southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
should be mostly in the 70s F, which will contribute to a pocket of
moderate instability by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range across parts of Iowa, where scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon. Although
deep-layer shear will be on the weak side, low-level lapse rates
will beco*e steep in the mid to late afternoon. This may be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat with multicells that form within
the stronger instability.

...Central High Plains...
An anticyclone at mid-levels will be in place today from the Four
Corners eastward into the central Plains. Beneath this feature, an
axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from central
Colorado extending eastward into western Kansas. As surface
temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Front Range and across the Palmer Divide. Forecast soundings along
the Palmer Divide at 00Z have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be about 30 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates
exceeding 7.5 C/km. This environment should be sufficient for a
marginal wind-damage threat late this afternoon and early this
evening.

...Arizona...
A moist airmass will be in place across much of southern and central
Arizona today. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability is
forecast by afternoon across much of this airmass. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along the
Mogollon Rim and southward into central and southern Arizona. Steep
low-level lapse rates evident on forecast soundings, are forecast to
exceed 7.5 C/km, which should be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat near and after peak heating.

..Broyles/Karstens.. 08/07/2022