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Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070003Z - 070130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized wind/hail threat will be possible with the
strongest storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows widespread convective development
along the front range that has largely remained
transient/disorganized thus far, but is beginning to locally
intensify as well as showing signs of cold pool development/cell
merging. This activity is gradually propagating eastward where
richer low-level moisture resides, associated with increasing
instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg). Despite these
favorable thermodynamic characteristics, vertical shear remains
rather weak across the region, perhaps approaching 30 kt of
effective bulk shear. Thus, a localized wind/hail threat appears
possible this evening with the strongest storms. If upscale growth
of the current activity can occur, a more persistent but still
localized wind threat may emerge, particularly if this activity can
propagate into northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas where the
axis of greater instability may support such a threat. For now,
however, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 08/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37940207 37690378 38610421 39370443 40020331 40260224
            39750132 37940207