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Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062048Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
will increase through the afternoon. Current thinking is that the
severe threat could remain too isolated for a watch, though trends
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Along and west of the Laramie Mountains in southeast
WY, visible satellite imagery shows an expanding/deepening cumulus
field amid veered surface winds -- indicative of deep boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization. Within the deeply mixed airmass, isolated
convective development is underway over Natrona County, and 40-50 kt
of 0-6 km bulk shear (per the RIW VWP) is already supporting
supercellular characteristics with this activity. 

As the steep low-level lapse rates associated with the diurnally
deepening boundary layer continue to impinge on recycled moisture
(upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) and east-southeasterly upslope flow
over eastern WY, convective intensity/coverage should gradually
increase through the afternoon. Long/generally straight hodographs
and weak large-scale ascent should initially support
discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of large
hail and severe gusts given a deep sub-cloud layer and modest
midlevel lapse rates. With time, continued cell splits/mergers and a
modest increase in large-scale ascent ahead of a weak midlevel wave
could favor increasing convective coverage. Currently, it is unclear
if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective trends
will be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42310564 42650625 42760680 42740732 42880776 43290770
            43570737 44140639 44110562 43910499 43550468 43060454
            42100432 41090431 41040466 41120498 41510517 41930538
            42310564