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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening
from the upper Mississippi Valley into the central High Plains.

...IA/MN/WI...
Morning satellite imagery shows a canopy of cloud cover associated
with a decaying MCS over MN/WI.  The southern edge of clouds extends
from northwest IA into far southern MN and southwest WI.  Strong
heating and ample low-level moisture will be present today to the
south of this axis, with MLCAPE values expected to exceed 3000 J/kg
with 20-30 knots of deep-layer mean flow.  Most CAM solutions show
scattered thunderstorms developing in this area by late afternoon,
with a few supercell and organized multicell structures possible. 
Mid-level temperatures are quite warm and lapse rates are weak,
suggesting that the hail risk will be limited.  However, high PW
values and steep low-level lapse rates will promote damaging wind
gusts in the stronger cells.  Therefore have added a small SLGT risk
area to parts of the region.

...High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening over the plains of eastern CO/WY and drift
eastward.  Forecast soundings show that winds aloft are rather
strong over WY, but thermodynamics will be somewhat marginal. 
Isolated supercells will be possible with a risk of hail and
damaging wind gusts, but the forecast coverage of intense storms
appears to be in line with a MRGL category at this time.  This will
be re-evaluated at 20z.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/06/2022