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Mesoscale Discussion 0510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...ArkLaTex region east/southeastward into southwest
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 171624Z - 171900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form across the ArkLaTex area after
17Z, beco*ing increasingly severe as they travel across Louisiana
and eventually southern Mississippi. Significant damaging hail will
be possible, as well as severe gusts. A brief tornado may occur as
well.

DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated convection is currently forming
across northeast TX into southeast OK, ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough and within the 850 mb theta-e axis. This is within
a weak pressure trough, but well north of the surface front which
currently lies near Shreveport LA. Some of this activity may begin
producing hail in the next 1-2 hours.

Later this afternoon, and mainly after 18Z, convergence will
increase near the boundary with a low developing near the Sabine
Valley and into north-central LA. By this time, MLCAPE will have
increased to over 2000 J/kg, and may approach 3000 J/kg by late
afternoon. Ample boundary-layer moisture is in place, and heating
will further deepen the moisture profile.

Low-level southwesterly winds will not be very strong but will at
least maintain the most unstable air up to the surface front. As
storms develop east/southeast in the vicinity of the boundary and
surface low, the strong instability and long hodographs
(characterized by increasing speeds with height) will favor
forward-tilted, southeastward-moving severe hail storms. Steep lapse
rates aloft and long hodographs suggest a storm or two may produce
wind-driven significant hail. If storm mode beco*es more linear than
expected, hail will still be possible but threat may trend toward
damaging straight-line winds. Low-level SRH will not be strong as
850 mb winds only average 20 kt, but will be maximized near the
boundary and support a brief tornado threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32009495 33099493 33369403 33129262 32589084 31959023
            31159048 30839121 30729181 30939347 32009495