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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather appears unlikely on Sunday across the CONUS.

...Discussion...
A fast-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, though
model spreads remain high regarding timing and strength of this
feature. The NAM remains a relative outlier, depicting a slower
solution. Regardless of wave timing, the stronger upper flow will
remain north of a cold front which will extend from KS into Lower MI
during the afternoon. Shear is thus expected to be weak along this
boundary, where convection will be focused throughout the day. 

Scattered early day storms may occur from IA into Lower MI near the
front, with lift aided by warm/moist advection at 850 mb where winds
may exceed 30 kt. Afternoon development is then expected from IL
into Lower MI as the front drifts south, with MUCAPE averaging near
1500 J/kg. Forecast soundings show poor lapse rates aloft and weak
shear along the length of the front, and as such, only sporadic
strong wind gusts are anticipated.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2022