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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are
expected today across parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota.  Other
more isolated thunderstorm wind gusts will occur from the central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic region.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending across
the western Dakotas.  This boundary will move eastward today and
provide the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development.  Strong
heating, dewpoints near 70F, and steep mid-level lapse rates will
yield MLCAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg.  CAM solutions suggest storms
will form by late afternoon and early evening from central SD into
northwest MN.  Deep-layer shear is sufficient for
organized/supercell storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail
through the evening.

...Mid Atlantic to Central Appalachians...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from east TN into
much of VA, where dewpoints in the 70s will result in afternoon
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.  Mid level lapse rates are weak, and
forecast soundings show weak winds aloft through column. 
Nevertheless, pulse and occasional multicell storm clusters will
pose a risk of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours
this afternoon.

..Hart/Smith.. 08/05/2022