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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S....

A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will
develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer
south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough
will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be
ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern
FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by
60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity
(50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be
greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given
intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even
very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging
gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado
potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture
exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. 

...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys...

Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West
and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into
the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe
storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf
and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the
Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the
southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is
possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance
currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the
probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at
this time.