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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm winds and hail are most probable today across
parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain characterized by a
pronounced, quasistationary anticyclone centered over the south-
central High Plains, and a broad height weakness from the Northeast
across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South and western Gulf.  The
latter contains several slow-moving perturbations -- one of which
should move northeastward roughly up the Ohio Valley through the
period.

Farther northwest:  a positively tilted synoptic trough -- with
numerous associated vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-
channel imagery from north-central SK southwestward across the
Pacific Northwest.  As the northern part shifts eastward to Hudson
Bay through the period, a basal shortwave trough now over south-
central BC and the Vancouver Island area will separate from the
synoptic trough and move southeastward to the interior Northwest by
12Z tomorrow.  This, in turn, will encourage northeastward movement
and stretching of a perturbation now located across parts of NV and
southern CA.  By 00Z, the latter trough should break into two
segments, one extending from the Yellowstone region southwestward to
central/south-central NV, the other crossing parts of southern MT. 
By 12Z, the northern segment should eject/accelerate east-
northeastward over the Dakotas and across northern MN.

At the surface, the 11Z analysis shows a cold front from southern MB
southwestward across northern/western ND, extreme southeastern MT,
to north-central/northwestern WY.  This front is forecast to move
southeastward over the northern Plains and portions of the Upper
Midwest through the period, reaching northwestern MN, eastern ND and
central/southwestern SD by 00Z.

...Dakotas to MN...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and especially this evening from the eastern Dakotas into
northern MN, offering sporadic severe hail/gusts.  A more-
conditional and isolated severe threat also may develop farther
southwest over central/southern SD where stronger diurnal heating
(but also stronger EML-related capping) are expected.

Initially discrete and perhaps elevated convection may evolve into a
more nearly surface-based, quasi-linear configuration with time,
given an orientation of mean-wind and deep-shear vectors slightly
off the front toward the warm sector.  Deep shear will support some
supercell potential for any persistently discrete cells, with
effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-50-kt range.  A moist axis
ahead of the surface cold front, characterized by surface dew points
in the 60s F, will support a narrow corridor of MLCAPE around
3500-4500 J/kg, with similar MUCAPE values longer into the evening. 
Well-mixed subcloud layers will persist from the diurnal heating
peaks well into the evening, supporting some wind potential even
from convection that may initiate from elevated inflow layers.

...Mid-Atlantic region...
Scattered thunderstorms -- both discrete and in multicell clusters
-- are expected to develop this afternoon.  Activity initially
should form over the eastern parts of the higher terrain from VA to
southeastern PA -- then move roughly eastward into a favorably
moist-unstable environment to support strong to locally severe
multicells.  Damaging subsevere gusts are likely from the most
intense cells, and isolated, marginally severe gusts are possible.

Peripheral large-scale ascent related to the Ohio Valley
perturbation may support development over the central Appalachians
today, but the main focus for lift should be diurnal heating,
especially over higher elevations, but also east of the Blue Ridge
along residual outflow/differential-heating zones as well.  Already
weak MLCINH and rich low-level moisture (e.g., surface dew points
co*monly in the 70s F) characterize the boundary layer.  Those, and
a deep troposphere, will support preconvective MLCAPE increasing
into the 2000-2500 J/kg range.  Deep-layer flow and shear will be
quite weak overall, with effective-shear magnitudes co*monly less
than 15 kt in forecast soundings.  A shallow but well-mixed subcloud
layer will support the gust potential, which will be strongest in
very deep/water loaded downdrafts.

...Portions of the Great Basin...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast through early this
evening across the region, with a peak in intensity corresponding to
maximum diurnal destabilization mid/late afternoon.  The main
concern will be isolated severe gusts.  The modified 12Z SLC RAOB
and forecast soundings suggest a well-mixed subcloud layer with
sufficient buoyancy for deep moist convection atop that.  Areas of
intermittent diabatic heating, amidst relatively rich low-level
moisture (dewpoints co*monly in the 50s F in lower elevations) will
support MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range -- perhaps locally near
1000 J/kg.  Deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional and
southwesterly, in the regime of generally difluent mid/upper winds
and modest large-scale lift associated with the shortwave trough.

..Edwards/Thompson.. 08/05/2022