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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members remain in reasonable agreement
with the large-scale pattern through Friday/D8, showing a prominent
upper high over the West gradually shifting east toward the Plains.
Slightly lower heights will exist across the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Monday/D4, with only a low-amplitude wave affecting the
region. A weak surface low will also move from Lower MI into the
Northeast on Monday/D4, with ample low-level moisture to support
daytime storms along a trailing cold front into the lower MO Valley.
However, MUCAPE is forecast to be at or below 500 J/kg due to warm
temperatures aloft, and, deep-layer shear as well as mean wind
speeds will remain marginal for any severe threat.

The aforementioned cold front will gradually push south each day,
with rain and thunderstorms developing across the southeastern
quarter of the CONUS. Given little flow and warm temperatures aloft,
concentrated areas of severe weather appear unlikely. 

Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms will remain possible over much of the
Southwest, south of the upper high and beneath weak easterlies
aloft.