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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible across parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota. A few strong
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the
northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the northern Plains. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon. A capping inversion will be present across
much of the northern Plains during the day. Isolated elevated storms
may develop in northwestern Minnesota during the afternoon, along
the western edge of a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet. The cap is
forecast to weaken from southeast North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota by early evening, which should allow for surface-based
thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings from Fargo
northeastward into northwest Minnesota have MLCAPE peaking above
4000 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots
with low to mid-level lapse rates around 8.0 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells and isolated large hail. The strongest of
storms should have potential for damaging wind gusts as well.

Further southwest into parts of South Dakota, the capping inversion
is expected to hold through early to mid evening. In spite of this,
elevated thunderstorms should form during the evening along the
front as convergence increases. Although moderate instability is
forecast ahead of the front, the elevated nature of the storms will
marginalize the severe potential. Effective shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots along the instability axis, suggesting that hail and
strong winds will still be possible.

...Mid Atlantic...
A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern
Appalachians today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place
along much of the Atlantic Seaboard. The strongest instability is
forecast to develop this afternoon from eastern Virginia into
Maryland and Delaware, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the
lower to mid 70s F. In addition, low-level lapse rates will beco*e
steep along and near the instability axis by mid afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings around Washington D.C. at 21Z have MLCAPE near
2500 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.0 and 8.5 C/km. This
suggests a potential for strong winds will acco*pany cells that
develop within the stronger instability. Weak deep-layer shear is
expected to keep any severe threat unorganized and marginal.

..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/05/2022