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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Parts of eastern SD/NE into western WI...
A low-amplitude midlevel speed max is forecast to move from MN to
Lake Superior early on Saturday, with lift from warm/moist advection
focused mainly north of a front that will extend from northeast NE
into northwest WI. Elevated storms are expected from central into
northeast MN north of this front, and effective shear up to 50 kt
along with sufficient MUCAPE may yield marginal hail with this early
activity.

The front will progress to a western KS/northern WI line by 00Z
Sunday, with upper 60s and lower 70s F dewpoints from eastern NE
into WI. A plume of steep low-level lapse rates will extend from KS
into eastern NE, IA, and far southern MN ahead of the front,
resulting in around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. However, midlevel lapse rates
are forecast to be poor, which may reduce severe potential. 

Storms are forecast to redevelop along the front from NE into SD/IA
after 21Z, then beco*e more widespread through early evening into
southern MN and western WI. By this time, effective shear will only
average 30-35 kt, but veering winds with height may favor a
short-lived supercell or two producing large hail or damaging gusts,
especially closer to the low-level lapse rate plume.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2022