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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms associated with strong wind gusts will be
possible this evening in parts of the Mid Atlantic and northeastern
Montana. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of
northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

...Mid Atlantic...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough and an
associated plume of mid-level moisture in the central Appalachians.
A second area of mid-level moisture is located from the Carolinas
into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place
across much of the eastern U.S. The highest surface dewpoints are
located in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, where surface dewpoints
are mostly in the mid 70s F. This is contributing to moderate
instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the northwestern
edge of the stronger instability from northern Virginia into
southern New Jersey. Although deep-layer shear is not the strong,
the instability co*bined with steep low-level lapse rates will be
favorable for a few strong wind gusts for a couple more hours this
evening, mainly from northeastern North Carolina into south-central
New Jersey.

...Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over
central South Dakota. At the surface, a mesolow is located near the
Black Hills with southeasterly flow across much of the central and
northern Plains. A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing from Cherry
County, Nebraska northward into southern South Dakota. These storms
are located on the southeastern edge of an axis of moderate
instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis suggest 0-6
km shear is near 50 knots. This, co*bined with steep mid-level lapse
rates in excess of 7.5 C/km, should be favorable for hail with the
stronger updrafts this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts
will also be possible. The threat could persist through late
evening, as storms gradually develop south and southeastward across
west-central and north-central Nebraska.

...Northeast Montana...
West-southwest mid-level flow is located across the northern Rockies
and northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be
embedded in the flow across central and southeast Montana. Ahead of
this feature, thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of eastern
Montana. Although these storms are high-based, lapse rates are very
steep. This could be enough for a few strong wind gusts over the
next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2022