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Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Areas affected...southwest and central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042000Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will continue to develop over
southwest MT and move northeast into central MT through the late
afternoon and early evening.  Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing
thunderstorms over the high terrain of southwest MT to the southeast
of a mid-level low centered over British Columbia.  Surface
observations over southwest and central MT indicate temperatures
have risen into the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 40s,
yielding temperature-dewpoint depressions exceeding 50 degrees F. 
RAP forecast soundings show scant buoyancy (less than 250 J/kg
MLCAPE) atop a very deeply mixed boundary layer featuring dry
adiabatic lapse rates.  The more water-laden cores will
correspondingly have greater evaporative-cooling potential and an
associated risk for microbursts capable of isolated severe gusts
later this afternoon into the early evening.  The coverage and
magnitude of the severe risk will preclude a severe thunderstorm
watch.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45831236 47141053 47320915 46730833 46030868 44971152
            45031212 45361244 45831236