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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY...NORTHEAST...GREAT BASIN...MT...AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly in the form of damaging winds,
are possible into early evening from the Ohio Valley into parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England, western portions of South Dakota
and Nebraska, Montana, and the western Colorado Plateau.

...20Z Update...

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
A few stronger gusts have been noted sporadically with a few storms
over the past hour or so, including a 42 kt gust at IPT in central
PA and a 40 kt gust at BGM in south-central NY. This trend will
likely continue throughout the afternoon within the unstable but
weakly sheared air mass over the region. Additional short-term
information is available in recently issued MCD #1651.

Farther west in the Lower OH Valley, a well-defined MCV is slowly
moving northeastward. Some limited enhancement of the low to
mid-level flow is possible through its eastern periphery, supporting
the potential for isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind
gusts over southern IN and adjacent western KY through the
afternoon.

...Elsewhere...
Forecasts outlined in the previous outlook remain valid. See
previous discussion below for details.

..Mosier.. 08/04/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022/

...NE/SD...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing will occur along a surface
lee trough across from the NE Panhandle into southwest SD. Though
boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat marginal, a narrow corridor
of MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg should develop with minimal MLCIN.
Most CAM guidance suggest a few storms should form near the surface
trough during the late afternoon. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles
and moderately elongated hodographs could support a couple
high-based supercells capable of isolated severe wind and hail for a
few hours into the early evening.

...MT...
An amplified upper trough centered on BC will shift east across the
Canadian Rockies towards SK through 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a
surface cyclone will deepen over southeast AB into southern SK, with
a trailing cold front sharpening over MT. With PW values largely
between 0.5 to 0.75 inches this morning, boundary-layer moisture
will be quite limited. Very deep boundary-layer mixing with meager
buoyancy atop that along the surface front should be just enough to
promote very high-based convection from southwest to central MT.
While the bulk of stronger mid-level westerlies will be confined to
the cool side of the surface front, adequate strengthening will
support semi-organized skeletal clusters capable of isolated severe
outflow gusts spreading east-northeast.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
A remnant MCV over far southern IL should drift east into western
KY. To the northeast of this MCV, broad but weak mid-level
southwesterlies will exist within a seasonably rich PW moisture
plume. The persistence of weak convective outflows, differential
surface heating, and terrain will support a broad swath of scattered
thunderstorms. Relatively greater potential for damaging microbursts
in predominately pulse and slow-moving multicell clusters should
exist from the Upper OH Valley into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic where
MLCAPE can exceed 2000 J/kg. But the lack of greater vertical shear
will be detrimental to an organized severe threat. See MCD 1648 and
later MCDs this afternoon for additional short-term forecast
information.

...Western CO Plateau vicinity...
A belt of enhanced mid-level easterlies beco*ing more southeasterly
later today will persist to the north of an MCV drifting west across
the Lower CO Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
northwestward off the Mogollon Rim across the western CO Plateau and
spread towards the southern Great Basin. Marginally severe hail will
possible in initial updrafts transitioning to mainly a marginally
severe wind threat later.