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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to
shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the
central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the
Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should
provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley.
Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also
play a role in convective evolution/development.

...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley...
Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of
Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some
cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree
of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent
along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to
move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some
linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected
within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where
there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central
Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors
oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential
should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater
surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this
environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible.
Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered
damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms.

...Mid-South...
Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based,
particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be
quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface
moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce
damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low
severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in
this scenario increases.

...Alabama/Georgia...
The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as
buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong
wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Wendt.. 03/02/2025