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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
TEXAS...

The previous forecast generally remains on track. The area
delineating Extremely Critical fire-weather potential has been
expanded farther south to enco*pass more area of far West Texas. No
other changes were made to the Extremely Critical area, although
some consideration was given to expand the area farther east into
Northwest Texas. High-resolution ensemble guidance currently
indicates potential for Extremely Critical conditions into this
region, but too brief to warrant expansion at this time. Elsewhere,
refinements were made to the western portions of the Elevated and
Critical areas, mainly to remove northwestern portions of New Mexico
where cool temperatures behind a Pacific cold front should now limit
fire-weather potential despite the presence of dry/breezy
conditions.

..Karstens.. 03/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse
the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface
low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface
dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for
several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread
potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds amid 10-15 percent RH will beco*e co*mon across much of New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating
the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However,
deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including
high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for
at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far
West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical
thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH,
at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread
behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of
these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into
Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the
northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As
such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments
in later outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...