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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible Friday
afternoon across parts of the northern Plains, and over parts of
Virginia and Maryland.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to prevail across the southern half of the
CONUS on Friday, with the center of the ridge drifting northeastward
into the central Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to progress
eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces into Ontario. The
gradient between the southern CONUS upper ridging and this shortwave
trough will act to enhanced the westerly flow aloft from the Pacific
Northwest into the Upper MS Valley.

A surface low will precede the Canadian shortwave, beginning the
period over central Manitoba before moving northeastward into
northern Ontario and the Hudson Bay. An attendant cold front is
expected to sweep southeastward across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, leading to thunderstorms development during the afternoon
and evening.

...Northern Plains...
Strong diurnal heating is anticipated ahead of the front across the
northern Plains on Friday, with temperatures reaching the upper 90s
and low 100s. Despite deep boundary-layer mixing associated with
this heating, dewpoints are expected to remain in the 60s, which
will support moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal
air mass. Late afternoon thunderstorm initiation is anticipated
along the front, with robust updrafts developing quickly. Some of
the enhanced mid-level flow discussed in the synopsis will extend
over the region, supporting around 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear, which is enough for occasional supercell storm
structures. However, the linear character of the forcing for ascent
along the front coupled with high storm coverage suggests a
discrete, supercellular mode would be difficult to maintain. These
factors, coupled with the high-based character of the storms,
suggest a mainly multicellular/outflow-dominant mode, with damaging
wind gusts as the main severe threat. There is enough overlap
between the buoyancy and shear to support a hail threat as well,
particularly early in the storm life cycle.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected over much of the
Mid-Atlantic, fostered by diurnal heating, ample low-level moisture,
and modest ascent. The ascent over the region will be a co*bination
of low-level confluence and weak large-scale lift attendant to any
convectively inducted vorticity maxima from overnight activity
farther west. All of these factors maximize over northern VA and
vicinity, where the greatest probability for a few damaging wind
gusts exists.

..Mosier.. 08/04/2022