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Mesoscale Discussion 1648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Areas affected...North-central PA into southern/central NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041619Z - 041815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible as thunderstorms
spread northeastward this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An arc of convection has moved from western into
north-central PA through the morning, with occasional 30-35 kt gusts
noted. While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region,
unidirectional southwesterly flow may be sufficient to maintain
loosely organized convection in association with this arc and
related cold pool as it moves northeastward into a destabilizing
environment, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind
gusts. Additional storm development is expected downstream into
parts of southern/central NY this afternoon, which may also pose a
localized damaging wind threat as low-level lapse rates steepen with
time. With the threat expected to remain relatively isolated and
disorganized, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42647697 43107539 43147492 42867454 42197508 41507610
            41137662 40967706 40777809 41447879 41787899 42647697