Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible across much of the Northeast,
Ohio Valley, the southern Plains, and parts of Montana.

...Discussion...

While much of the CONUS will experience neutral to weak height rises
tomorrow, strong surface heating will once again result in scattered
thunderstorm development for many regions. In the more favorable
areas the most robust storms may produce locally gusty winds. Much
of this activity will focus during the mid-late afternoon and
evening hours.

...Ohio Valley to New England...

Southern influence of a weak short-wave trough will eject northeast
across the OH Valley toward northern New England later Today. Early
this morning, a fairly significant amount of convection has
developed ahead of this feature from central MO across IL into
western IN. By the start of the period a weak MCV may evolve from
this activity then drift east across southern IN. The primary
concern for strong surface heating will be immediately downstream of
this feature, across the OH Valley into portions of northern New
England. While large-scale forcing for ascent will not be
appreciable, strong heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates will prove favorable
for locally gusty winds with the most robust thunderstorm activity.

...Southern Plains...

Upper anticyclone is expected to remain anchored over the southern
High Plains in the vicinity of northeast NM/TX Panhandle. Mid-level
flow is forecast to beco*e more northeasterly across OK later today
and this should allow an early-day convective co*plex over eastern
KS/MO to sag south which should encourage a weak surface boundary to
advance into the southern Plains. By 20z convective temperatures
should be breached as readings rise above 100F across central OK.
Latest model guidance suggests PW values will approach 2 inches, and
with 40F surface temp/dew point spreads thermodynamic profiles favor
gusty downdrafts. If thunderstorms initiate along the aforementioned
boundary gusty downdrafts seem plausible as convection propagates
slowly west.

...MT...

The only substantial short-wave trough expected across the CONUS
today will eject across the Pacific Northwest and flatten the upper
ridge over MT late in the period. This feature will force a notable
surface front across ID into western MT by 18z and this boundary
will surge into eastern MT by 05/00z. While the air mass is not
particularly moist across this region at this time, scattered
high-based convection is expected to develop ahead of the front.
Very steep lapse rates and strengthening flow aloft suggest locally
strong winds may acco*pany this scattered weak convection as it
spreads east during and shortly after peak heating.

..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/04/2022