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Mesoscale Discussion 1646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Lower Michigan...extreme
northwest Ohio...much of central Indiana...southern
Illinois...southeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...515...516...

Valid 032245Z - 040015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514, 515,
516 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 514, 515, and 516. Damaging gusts are the main threat with
stronger storms embedded in the line. The severe threat is expected
to gradually wane after sunset. Local WW extensions may be
necessary.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized squall line, extending roughly from
Detroit, MI to areas south of St. Louis, MO, continues to propagate
east-southeast amid a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per
22Z mesoanalysis). In the absence of stronger upper flow, shear and
deep-layer ascent, the squall line persists eastward by means of
cold pool propagation into a well-mixed boundary layer (90 F surface
temperatures overspread by 7 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates). As such,
damaging gusts will continue to acco*pany the more pronounced line
segments where locally stronger cold pool(s) can continue to
interact with the heated/mixed boundary layer. However, nocturnal
cooling after sunset should support effective cold pool weakening
and a waning of the severe threat. Until then, locally stronger
portions of the squall line may propagate outside of the ongoing WWs
before sunset, and local watch extensions may be needed.

..Squitieri.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37459093 38858915 40598602 41678452 42148383 42168333
            41728306 41218331 40648383 39988477 39298579 37918801
            37368960 37459093