Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032040Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and strong wind gusts may
acco*pany the stronger storms across the Upper MI Peninsula over the
next few hours. The severe threat should remain isolated and
localized, and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicells/transient supercells are approaching the
eastern half of the Upper MI Peninsula, where diurnal heating amid
70+ F surface dewpoints is supporting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. While
troposheric lapse rates are modest (around 6 C/km per 20Z
mesoanalysis), 20+ kts of 850 mb southwesterly flow is overspread by
a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet streak, supporting 50 kts of effective bulk
shear and associated potential for storm organization. RAP forecast
soundings depict relatively long, straight hodographs with minimal
0-3 km curvature, indicative of multicells and splitting and
transient supercells supporting a large hail threat. Given a
modestly mixed boundary layer, a few damaging gusts are possible as
well. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated
and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON   46358757 46748649 46718518 46478433 46148393 45918423
            45878547 45968640 46028709 46358757