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Mesoscale Discussion 1643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...northern IN...southern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

Valid 032018Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) capable of wind damage
will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms.  This activity
will move west to east along the I-80/90 corridor in the Michiana
region over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 20 UTC shows an almost fully connected
band of storms from the thumb of Michigan southwestward to southern
Lake Michigan and southwest into central IL.  The airmass ahead of
the squall line has been primed with surface temperatures in the
lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s over northern IN into
southwest Lower MI.  The 18 UTC Detroit raob showed 2300 J/kg MLCAPE
with a surface temperature-dewpoint of 85/72.  Greater buoyancy now
is present across southeast Lower MI with temperatures in the lower
90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.

Reports of power outages have been noted with storms near the
Kankakee, IL and Michigan City, IN areas during the 19-20 UTC
timeframe.  A couple of surface observation sites have sampled
near-severe gusts [e.g., 47 kt (KIGQ at the IL/northwest IN border
and KBEH--Benton Harbor, MI)].  KIWX and KGRR both show
southwesterly tropospheric flow and the orientation of the squall
line will likely be more conducive for stronger gusts with the line
more orthogonal to the mean wind.  In other words, the portion of
the squall line from northwest IN into southwest Lower MI will
probably favor the strongest gusts as it moves east over the
Michiana region during the next several hours.

..Smith.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40528784 41308675 42188633 42448480 43548248 43028231
            42068374 40728669 40418748 40528784