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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds will be possible from the Great Lakes to
the Lower Missouri Valley through this evening.

...20Z Update...

...Mid MS Valley into Lower MI...
Thunderstorms have initiated within the pre-frontal low-level
convergence across the region. The air mass is very moist, with
numerous locations reporting dewpoints in the mid 70s. The best
buoyancy is currently located over southern IL, while the strongest
shear is over northern Lower MI. While there is some displacement
between these parameters, strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000 to 4000 J/kg of
MLCAPE) should still result in intense updrafts capable of water
loading. As a result, damaging wind gusts are the primary severe
threat. Potential for a supercell or two does exist over southern
Lower MI, where the more favorable vertical shear (sampled well by
the 18Z DTX sounding) exists, particularly if a discrete mode can be
maintained. Additional details are available in MCD #1642.

Additional storm development is possible along the front, like what
has recently occurred over central WI. Limited buoyancy due to
cloudiness and modest lapse rates associated with preceding
thunderstorms should limit overall coverage and intensity.

...Elsewhere...
Ongoing forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended
below) remain valid with no changes needed.

..Mosier.. 08/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022/

...Northern IL/southeast WI to Lower MI...
An MCV evident in east-central IA will move into Lower MI by early
evening. A broken swath of stratiform and deep convection is ongoing
immediately ahead of this MCV in eastern IA, northeast across
northern/central Lower MI. Robust boundary-layer heating is underway
ahead of large-scale convective outflow still spreading east of this
midday activity in IL, with a plume of large buoyancy anticipated as
MLCAPE increases to 3000-4000 J/kg. Much of the convection may
remain to the cool side of the large-scale convective outflow (at
least in the short-term), but there is potential for clusters to
eventually consolidate along the leading edge of the differential
heating corridor. While stronger mid-level westerlies will generally
reside over Lower MI (with a gradient from north to south), the DMX
VWP sampled 40-45 kt 700-500 mb westerlies in the wake of the MCV.
This should support increasingly organized convection this
afternoon, even behind the broader large-scale convective outflow.
Sporadic strong to severe wind gusts producing swaths of scattered
damage appears possible this afternoon. This threat should linger
into early evening with line segments that spread eastward.

...Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys...
Most morning guidance suggest ongoing showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the wake of the leading east-central IA MCV should
hold off on intensifying until the early evening time frame. A
low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the Mid-MO Valley should drift
east-southeast, while low-level convergence should tend to
strengthen towards early evening along southern portion of a
bifurcated frontal zone. Weaker but a more northwesterly co*ponent
to mid-level flow should yield slower storm motions in multicell
clusters that tend to propagate south-southeast in MO/IL. With a
plume of large buoyancy in the warm/moist sector, scattered damaging
wind gusts will be possible well into the evening, before gradually
waning overnight.

...Southern AZ...
Late morning convection is ongoing across parts of southeast AZ and
this lowers confidence in the degree of boundary-layer heating and
convective redevelopment off the higher terrain later today. Morning
CAM guidance generally provides mixed signals on the degree of
convective coverage during the late afternoon and evening.
Conditionally, adequate speed shear from the mid to upper levels
within a belt of east-southeasterlies around the Four Corners
anticyclone could support a threat for marginally severe wind and
some hail this evening.

...Southeast States...
Very localized damaging winds are possible within pulse microbursts 
over a large swath of the Southeast. Minimal deep-layer shear will
mitigate potential for organized clustering.