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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...

The main change for this forecast update is to introduce an Isolated
Dry-Thunderstorm risk area to portions of the northern Rockies.
Latest hi-res ensemble guidance has shown an increase in
thunderstorm probability for Thursday afternoon associated with a
passing shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Forecast
soundings from most guidance feature inverted-v soundings in the
lowest 2-3 km with slim CAPE profiles and PWAT values between 0.8 to
1.0 inch. This will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, but given
the dry fuel status (ERCs near or above the 90th percentile) and the
potential for strong to severe outflow winds, a lightning-driven
fire weather risk appears possible. Isolated wet/dry thunderstorms
are also possible across southeast OR where fuels are also dry;
however, confidence in storm coverage remains too limited for
additional highlights. Minor adjustments to the Elevated risk areas
were made based on latest trends in ensemble guidance; see the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022/

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over
the Four Corners, a midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly
flow aloft will overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies/adjacent High Plains during peak heating. At the surface,
low pressure will evolve eastward from AB into SK, while a trailing
cold front moves across the northern Rockies. 

...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a swath of 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected across parts of
north-central MT. These strong winds, coupled with a
hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer (10-15 percent minimum RH) will lead
to critical fire-weather conditions. In addition, mixed wet-dry
thunderstorms should spread eastward across the northern Rockies,
acco*panied by locally strong outflow winds. While isolated
lightning-induced ignitions are possible with this activity,
coverage may be too isolated for highlights. 

...Pacific Northwest...
Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerly flow aloft and
downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades will result in
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH.
Given receptive fuels from WA into OR, elevated to locally critical
conditions can be expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...