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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY...AND CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are expected
over portions of the Ohio Valley as well as over central Montana on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the southern
High Plains early Thursday morning, covering much of the southern
half of the CONUS. This upper ridging is expected to persist
throughout the period, relegating any stronger westerly flow to the
northern CONUS, in particular the corridor from the Pacific
Northwest into the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave
trough will progress through this westerly flow aloft, remaining
mainly on the Canadian side of the international border.
Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible across MT as the ascent
and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to this shortwave foster
thunderstorm development.

The central and eastern CONUS will be devoid of any large-scale
synoptic features, but a convectively induced shortwave trough may
be in place over the Mid MS Valley early in the period, induced by
overnight thunderstorms. This shortwave is then forecast to progress
northeastward through the OH Valley during the day.

...OH Valley...
Overnight thunderstorms upstream of the region will greatly
influence the overall severe potential Thursday, contributing
significantly to both the strength of the shortwave trough expected
to move through the region as well as the position of any outflow
boundaries. Current expectation is for the convectively induced
shortwave trough to track northeastward through the region during
the afternoon, interacting with the moist and buoyant air mass to
foster the development of numerous to widespread thunderstorms.
Modestly enhanced low to mid-level flow may acco*pany this
shortwave, supporting the potential for a few stronger, more
organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Central MT...
Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. Destabilization resultant from this mixing as well
as increasing mid-level moisture will result in meager buoyancy.
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as the southern
periphery of the shortwave glances the region. Moderate vertical
shear will aid in updraft persistence, with the high-based character
of these storms contributing to a risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected within the moist
Monsoonal regime beneath the expansive upper ridge. Modest vertical
shear should result in a predominantly pulse/multicellular storm
mode, limiting updraft duration and overall strength. The only
exception is over northern AZ, where the co*bination of shear and
buoyancy may be enough to support a severe storm or two. However,
uncertainty regarding coverage precludes introducing any severe
probabilities with this outlook.

...Northern ME... 
Southern periphery of a shortwave trough moving through Quebec will
contribute to increased forcing for ascent as well as stronger
mid-level flow across the region. Scattered thunderstorm development
is anticipated during afternoon, with the deep westerly flow aloft
contributing to the potential for a few stronger storms capable of
damaging wind gusts. Current expectation is for overall severe
coverage too remain less than 5%.

..Mosier.. 08/03/2022