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Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...eastern IA...southern WI...west-central Lower
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031542Z - 031715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe gusts are
possible through the early afternoon from eastern IA across southern
WI and into west-central Lower MI.  Uncertainty is above average
with regards to storm-scale evolution in the presence of a very
moist/weakly capped airmass.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several small thunderstorm clusters
extending from eastern IA (located immediately downstream of an MCV)
into southern WI.  KCID (Cedar Rapids, IA) recently observed a 46-kt
gust at 1521 UTC.  The area from eastern IA near the IA/WI/IL border
eastward into west-central Lower MI has been relatively void of
extensive shower activity up until now (1530 UTC).  The lack of
extensive shower activity this morning has enabled surface
temperatures to slowly warm into the 75-80 deg F range and
correspondingly enable moderate destabilization.  Surface dewpoints
are in the lower 70s and are indicative of a very moist boundary
layer extending from IA into Lower MI.  

It seems plausible some increase in severe risk may occur downstream
of the MCV across eastern IA into southern WI over the next several
hours.  Some of this activity may move east across Lake Michigan
into Lower MI.  Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are the
severe concern, but uncertainty remains high regarding details of
the convective evolution of various thunderstorm clusters that will
probably develop further over the next few hours.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43878488 43389005 43159074 42539166 42299159 42119119
            42458992 42898484 43348456 43878488