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Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...Southeast MN into northwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022312Z - 030115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk
this afternoon/evening. If storms can develop and persist, all
severe hazards would be possible.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection and related cloud debris across
northeast MN into northern WI has reinforced a WNW/ESE-oriented warm
front draped across parts of central MN into north-central WI this
afternoon. South of the warm front, diurnal heating/mixing of a
favorably moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath a plume
of steep midlevel lapse rates is contributing to moderate to strong
surface-based instability. In addition, a series of low-amplitude,
midlevel speed maxima embedded in a belt of enhanced westerly flow
aloft are resulting in 44-55 kt effective shear over the warm
sector. The warm advection regime and related low-level veering wind
profiles are yielding enlarged, clockwise-turning low-level
hodographs characterized by 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH along and south
of the warm front.

Currently, it is unclear if convection will develop within this
regime, though continued isentropic ascent amid the aforementioned
diurnal destabilization could result in isolated development over
the next couple hours. If convection can develop, the large looping
hodographs and favorable deep-layer shear/instability would support
discrete or semi-discrete supercells capable of large hail, damaging
winds, or perhaps tornadoes. Trends are being monitored closely for
the need of a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44409002 44019035 43839107 44049214 44729329 45349354
            45919338 46319313 46469260 46489208 46399164 46069097
            45559040 44948999 44409002