SPC MD 1633
SPC MD 1633
[html]MD 1633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ into far southwest NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022234Z - 030030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
with the stronger storms this afternoon. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convective development is
underway along the higher terrain in southeast AZ this afternoon.
Here, enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the southern periphery
of a large-scale ridge is contributing to 25-35 kt effective shear.
This modest deep-layer shear, coupled with steep midlevel lapse
rates atop a moist boundary layer (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) could
favor a few deep/organized updrafts capable of isolated large hail
and locally severe downdraft winds. Current thinking is that this
threat will remain too isolated for a watch consideration.
..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31240817 31210932 31250984 31731039 32481071 33241070
33671050 33661005 33420973 33200947 32940917 32580872
32290829 31750760 31620792 31240817
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Source: SPC MD 1633 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1633.html)
Topic: SPC MD 1633 (Read 34 times)
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