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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible across a
portion of the northern Upper Midwest this evening into tonight.

...20Z Update...
No change needed to the previous outlook. See previous discussion
below for forecast details.

..Mosier.. 08/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022/

...Northeast ND to northern WI/Upper MI...
A vigorous shortwave trough will progress east across the southern
Prairie Provinces into northwest ON through 12Z tomorrow. A deep
surface cyclone will similarly track from southern SK to far
northwest ON. A cold front arcing southwest from this cyclone will
sweep into the Red River Valley by evening and likely reach western
Lake Superior in the early morning. Initial severe potential should
be focused near this boundary in the northeast ND vicinity during
the early evening. Here, the trailing portion of supercell
development may spread across the international border (more likely
in eastern MB) as MLCIN wanes on the western periphery of upper 60s
boundary-layer dew points. This activity may occur within a confined
corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg), steep
mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km from 700-500 mb), and an
elongated/straight-line hodograph. These will conditionally favor a
discrete supercell or two capable of producing very large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts into northwest MN during the evening. 

Farther east, a leading mid-level perturbation near the MB/ND border
in conjunction with low-level warm theta-e advection should support
a separate corridor of severe potential from the St. Croix Valley to
western Upper MI this evening into tonight. The environment along
the northwest/southeast-oriented warm front will be conditionally
favorable for intense supercells. However, confidence is low in
whether surface-based supercells will develop and be sustained given
the presence of the upstream elevated mixed-layer and warming 700-mb
temperatures (near 14 C this evening over the Twin Cities). The more
probable scenario is for elevated convection later this evening into
the overnight. With ample upstream buoyancy and effective bulk
shear, organized clusters with embedded supercell structures should
pose a threat for both severe hail and damaging winds. 

...Lower OH Valley/Mid-South...
Thunderstorm clusters are ongoing but largely decaying in southern
IL. Broader convective outflow has spread out well ahead of these
clusters near the confluence of the MS/OH rivers and should be a
limiting factor to a more robust threat. But strong boundary-layer
heating to the south and west of this outflow could support
resurgence of convective remnants into the Mid-South region later
this afternoon amid modest mid to upper-level north-northwesterlies.
Morning guidance such as the 12Z NAM and HRRR runs have terribly
simulated ongoing convection, lowering confidence in areal extent of
the isolated damaging wind threat today. 

...Northern ME...
Scattered showers are ongoing along and just ahead of a surface cold
front shifting east from the St. Lawrence Valley. This activity
should deepen somewhat as it impinges on the warming boundary layer
across northern New England. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
updraft intensity, although a modest co*bination of buoyancy/shear
could favor some threat for isolated damaging winds. 

...Central/southern FL Peninsula...
Numerous thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and should
eventually coalesce over the interior peninsula as they slowly
spread inland later this afternoon. Light winds through 400 mb will
limit potential for storm-scale organization with ambient effective
bulk shear expected to only reach 8-15 kts. But large buoyancy and
storm-scale mergers should support a threat for sporadic wet
microbursts and localized strong gusts.