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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...

The main adjustment for this update is to expand the Elevated risk
area into portions of northwest South Dakota and to introduce an
isolated dry-thunderstorm risk to portions of central/northern NE.
The 12 UTC UNR sounding sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions
atop a shallow nocturnal inversion. Latest surface observations show
temperatures quickly warming into the mid 80s as the inversion
begins to mix out. Relative humidity should quickly fall through the
afternoon as mixing continues (though this may be hindered to a
degree by increasing cloud cover). As pressure gradient winds
increase this afternoon, elevated conditions appear probable. 

To the south across NE, richer moisture content is noted in morning
soundings, which will help support adequate instability for
high-based thunderstorms later this afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place as
temperatures warm into the upper 90s and low 100s. A 2-3 km deep
sub-cloud layer coupled with steep low-level lapse rates should be
supportive of a few dry thunderstorms as well as gusty outflow
winds. With ERCs across the region near the 90th percentile and
10-hour fuel moisture between 5-8%, a lightning-driven fire weather
threat appears probable.

..Moore.. 08/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022/

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over
the western CONUS, a belt of deep/enhanced westerly flow will extend
from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. Multiple shortwave troughs will move through the
westerly flow aloft during the day, with the strongest midlevel flow
expected across parts of northern MT into northwest ND. 

...Wind/RH...
Deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong flow aloft will
result in a swath of 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid
15-20 percent RH across portions of MT into far western ND this
afternoon. Given highly receptive fuels over this area, critical
conditions are expected. Farther west, westerly downslope flow will
favor warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades in WA into northern
OR. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coupled with
15-20 percent minimum RH will yield elevated to locally critical
conditions.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Large-scale ascent acco*panying the shortwave troughs and sufficient
midlevel moisture/instability will support high-based thunderstorm
development along and east of the Cascades in OR into northern CA
and farther east in the northern Rockies. While many of these storms
will be associated with accumulating rainfall given 1.0-1.2 in PW,
isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the
periphery of precipitation cores.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...