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Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...west central/central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021242Z - 021445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may organize further and pose
increasing potential to produce strong to severe gusts in corridor
across and southeast of Peoria, into the Decatur vicinity, before
probably weakening after 10-11 AM CDT.  It is not clear that this
will require a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level frontogenetic forcing and warm advection
have contributed to large-scale ascent supporting persistent
thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving clusters,
in a zone near/east of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio
Valleys.  This is occurring in the presence of weakly sheared, 10-20
kt northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, but seasonably high moisture
content concentrated along/above (to the cool side of) the front
appears to be contributing to large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg.

Cloud tops have cooled and peak lightning flash rates have increased
with the trailing cluster of storms now approaching the Peoria, IL
area, and a small lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation may be
evolving within the intensifying convection along the leading edge
of developing surface cold pool.  As the cold pool continues
south-southeastward, observational data and objective analysis
suggest that a south-southwesterly inflow of unstable air may
maintain vigorous thunderstorm development into mid morning.  As
long as this continues, it is possible that the evolving MCV may
beco*e better defined as it migrates along the frontal zone,
acco*panied by strengthening rear inflow and strong surface gusts.

As activity propagates south of the Interstate 70 into 64 corridors
of southern Illinois, it probably will begin to process more stable
air impacted by preceding convection and seems likely to diminish.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40638968 40458945 39768903 39378932 39589000 40089040
            40419064 40449052 40449004 40638968