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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ND TO NORTHERN WI/WESTERN
UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes today and tonight. Additional more isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
northern and central Plains, the Ohio Valley vicinity and across
Maine.

...Northern MN to northern WI/Upper MI through tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over southern AB this morning will
progress east-southeastward to ND/MN by tonight.  This trough will
be preceded by other more subtle perturbations, one of which is now
over northeast MT, and another within the monsoonal moisture plume
will move eastward from southeast ID toward NE/SD by tonight.  At
the surface, a cyclone will develop eastward from southern SK to
western ON, as a trailing cold front moves southeastward across the
Dakotas/NE by the end of the period.  The cold front will be
preceded by a lee trough this afternoon/evening from central ND into
western NE, while a warm front will move northeastward from IL/IA/SD
to MN/WI by this evening.

The richest low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s) will reside along the warm front, beneath a plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates and a relatively warm base of the
elevated mixed layer.  Through much of the day, forcing for ascent
will be limited mainly to warm advection from northeast MN into
northwestern WI and western Upper MI, where isolated elevated storms
could form, in profiles conditionally favorable for supercells with
large hail and isolated damaging winds.  The coverage of storms is
in question, though there will be some potential for storms to
evolve into a cluster while spreading east-southeastward tonight
from western Upper MI toward northern Lower MI.  Otherwise, storms
could brush far northeast ND/northwest MN near the international
border, where MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg and long/relatively
straight hodographs will favor a supercell or two capable of
producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow gusts.

The potential for thunderstorm development is murkier farther to the
southwest in the warm sector through tonight, from central MN across
southeast SD and NE.  This corridor will reside beneath the warmest
part of the elevated mixed layer, where forcing for ascent will be
weak along and east of the lee trough, and where surface
temperatures near 100 F will be needed to eliminate convective
inhibition.  Assuming that isolated storms can form by late
afternoon in the deep mixing across NE/SD, or later tonight with the
approach of the weak shortwave trough from ID, there will be the
potential for isolated damaging gusts and/or large hail.

...Lower OH Valley and vicinity today...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing in IL in a zone of weak
low-level warm advection on the immediate cool side of a stalled
front, with rich low-level moisture and moderate-large buoyancy
located upstream to the west and south.  Warm advection will tend to
weaken through the morning, but some of this convection may persist
while developing southward along convective outflow through the day,
and other storms could develop farther south and east into TN. 
Though wind profiles will be relatively weak, the strongest storms
could produce isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...Northern ME this afternoon/evening...
A surface cold front will move into northern New England this
afternoon providing a focus for thunderstorm development, as a
subtle mid-upper speed max over Lake Huron moves eastward in broadly
cyclonic flow aloft.  Though midlevel lapse rates will be poor,
MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg and relatively straight hodographs with
effective bulk shear near 35 kt could support isolated low-end
supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/02/2022