Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Areas affected...Middle Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...509...

Valid 012251Z - 020045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 509
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind/hail, and perhaps a
brief/weak tornado continues for the middle OH River Valley. A more
isolated risk of severe wind/hail may persist across parts of the
upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection continues to intensify along a stationary
boundary along the middle OH River Valley. A more robust supercell
cluster across southeast IL has produced several instances of severe
hail over the past hour, including a 2-inch hail report. This
cell/cluster has begun to take on more outflow-dominant
characteristics (base on KVWS imagery), and may see an increasing
severe wind potential over the next 1-2 hours across the IL/KY/IN
tri-state region. 

To the east into southern IN/OH, shallower supercells continue to
intensify with increasing lightning counts and cooling cloud-top
temperatures. Modest ambient low-level helicity along the boundary
has allowed for these cells to quickly take on some supercell
characteristics with mid-level rotation. Latest environmental
estimates continue to show this region has the highest tornado
potential with ESRH estimates near 150-200 m2/s2. However, deep
layer flow and storm motions along the boundary will likely favor a
gradual increase in storm interactions that will act to limit the
tornado potential (though a hail/wind threat will likely persist). 

Across WV into PA, an elongated cluster of thunderstorms has
maintained intensity despite moving into a more limited
thermodynamic environment. This is likely due to favorable
deep-layer shear (near 40 knots) that is co*pensating for the meager
instability. A gradual weakening trend is likely with this activity
heading into the late evening hours, but a localized severe
wind/hail risk main persist for the next hour or so.

..Moore.. 08/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39478900 39628818 39938340 39828279 39478243 38828222
            38318230 38168302 38068498 37808654 37668734 37788819
            38318875 38648903 39478900