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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona
and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire
weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains,
but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status.

...Arizona/New Mexico...
A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east
towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor
imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading
northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these
features through the day will support surface pressure falls across
the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent
deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15
mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will
facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen
with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts
upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of
southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been
noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass
remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the
single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%
are likely. co*bined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels
(ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire
weather conditions appear likely.

...Central Plains...
Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across
much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south
of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving
southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced
from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories
emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single
digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE
where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is
anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry
with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should
modulate the overall fire weather threat.

..Moore.. 01/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...