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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20z Update...
The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue
northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime
through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning
potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this
evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent
continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning
flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and
coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected.
See the prior forecast for more info.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone
over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward
through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus.
Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the
stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of
lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into
tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in
progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley,
with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest
thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an
increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX,
with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley
tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven
by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small
hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts.