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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

Expanded the IsoDryT slightly farther west to cover areas near the
Mckinney and China2 fires where some thunderstorms are possible.
These thunderstorms are expected along the moisture gradient and
have the potential to be both wet and dry. Given the presence of
large fire in the area, decided it would be best to expand the
IsoDryT area slightly to cover this region. 

Also expanded the critical delineation across southeast Montana,
northeast Wyoming, and far northwest South Dakota. Some of the
strongest winds may actually occur in this region given the presence
of a low-level jet and a passing mid-level jet maximum.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will remain centered over the western CONUS,
while a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow extends
from the Pacific Northwest into the northern/central Plains along
the northern periphery of the ridge. Within the west-northwesterly
flow, an embedded shortwave trough and acco*panying strong flow
aloft will cross the northern Rockies, while a surface low deepens
over eastern MT. 

...Northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains...
As the belt of enhanced west-northwesterly flow overspreads the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains, downslope warming/drying and deep
boundary-layer mixing will result in a broad area of elevated
fire-weather conditions. Along the periphery of the deepening
surface low, a corridor of stronger sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds near 20 mph will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH
across portions of central into eastern MT -- where critical
fire-weather conditions are forecast.

...Lee of the Cascades in WA and northern OR...
The enhanced west-northwesterly downslope flow will support elevated
to locally critical conditions in the lee of the northern Cascades,
where 15-20 mph westerly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent
RH. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a series of subtle
midlevel impulses coupled with sufficient midlevel
moisture/instability will favor high-based thunderstorms from the
Cascades eastward into the northern Rockies. While many of these
storms will be a hybrid wet/dry mode, any lightning strikes away
from precipitation cores could lead to new fire starts owing to
highly receptive fuels over the area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...