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Mesoscale Discussion 1624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Indiana into
southwestern Ohio and adjacent northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011243Z - 011445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...It appears probable that the cluster of strong
thunderstorms will weaken more substantively, with diminishing
potential to produce strong wind gusts, as it spreads south and
southeast of Indianapolis toward the Greater Cincinnati area through
10-11 AM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Lift along the leading edge of the southeastward
accelerating cold pool associated with the sustained cluster of
storms appeared to contribute to at least some intensification of
thunderstorms across east central Illinois into west central
Indiana.  This was acco*panied by at least transient cooling of
cloud tops, but peak  lightning flash rates have been generally
trending downward, and tops are more recently warming.  It may have
also been aided by inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized
by CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, but the downstream
environment across east/southern Indiana into Ohio beco*es somewhat
drier and progressively more stable, and may not change much prior
to the arrival of the outflow.  As the convection increasingly
processes more stable air within the next hour or two, it seems
probable that it will continue to weaken and the potential for
occasional strong to locally severe wind gusts will gradually
subside.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   39758387 39158320 38258347 38418500 38798649 38978692
            39438654 40088622 40028534 39818402 39758387