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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are expected mainly across parts of
the Midwest and Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley including Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky...
Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for parts of the region,
including portions of Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky. Moderate to strong
destabilization is expected into Monday afternoon especially across
the lower/middle Ohio River Valley, northward across eastern Indiana
and western/central Ohio. This will be near/ahead of a
southeastward-advancing front, and to the south-southwest of
possible residual overnight convection and cloud cover that may be
located over Michigan/northern Indiana vicinity Monday morning.

An amplifying belt of moderately strong westerlies (30-50 kt at 500
mb) will influence forcing for ascent and probable storm
development/longevity Monday afternoon and evening. This could
potentially include some supercells aside from more prevalent
multicells and southeastward-moving bands/linear segments. Wind
damage will be the primary risk overall.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An initially southward-settling front will decelerate/stall and
begin to return northward late Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Moderately strong northwesterly winds will overlie the front. The
potential for deep convective development should remain limited
south of the front owing to strong capping, however isolated storm
development may occur late Monday afternoon and night near/north of
the boundary, particularly across portions of Nebraska where a
near-boundary zone of moderate to strong destabilization should be
maximized across much of central Nebraska to southeast Nebraska.
Where storms do form, a few supercells could occur, along with the
potential for storm organization and upscale growth near/northeast
of the boundary. Large hail and damaging winds may occur, with
damaging winds a viable possibility on the cool side of the front
owing to the steep lapse rate environment/dry air above the more
stable boundary layer.

Portions of central and possibly east-central/northeast Nebraska
could ultimately warrant an upgrade to a Slight Risk pending higher
confidence in convective initiation/deep convective development
within an otherwise severe-favorable environment.

...North Dakota...
The main thunderstorm potential should be relegated to the morning
and/or activity potentially crossing the international border later
in the day near/north-northeast of a front across the region. A few
strong to severe storms could occur given the strong wind profiles
and moderate surface-based buoyancy near the front and elevated
buoyancy to its east-northeast.

..Guyer.. 07/31/2022