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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of
southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified
mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained
offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will
deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building
surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a
strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA.
With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds,
critical fire-weather concerns are likely. 

...Southern CA...
Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to
continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low
RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical
fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore
gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry
conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of
southern CA from offshore flow.

The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later
D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper
trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant
amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western
side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and
low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough
begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level
east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb
across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into
D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph.
Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and
downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread,
potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely
across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain
of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into
D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken
D7/Thursday.

..Lyons.. 01/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...