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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail
are most likely across a portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley
between about 5 to 9 PM CDT.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough centered on the MB/ND border area
will progress east-southeast into the western Great Lakes region
tonight. Associated surface cold front over the eastern Dakotas will
similarly push east-southeast across the Upper MS Valley through
this evening.

...Upper MS Valley...
Low-level warm-advection-driven convection is ongoing across
south-central MN to northwest IA, but decaying ahead of the cold
front. Stronger surface heating and greater boundary-layer moisture
in the wake of this activity will support a confined plume of
moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg by
21-00Z. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected
along the northern periphery of the buoyancy gradient in northwest
to north-central MN. Convection will likely build south along the
front through central to east-central MN during the early evening,
with lower confidence in southern extent towards the IA border.

Surface temperature-dew point spreads will be marginally large
initially, but favorable low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be
sufficient for a threat of a tornado or two. Otherwise, around 30-35
kt effective bulk shear should yield a mixed cluster/embedded
supercell mode, with the latter tending to be favored farther south
where shear is slightly stronger and convection should be more
semi-discrete. Damaging winds should be somewhat more favored in
terms of coverage, but isolated severe hail is anticipated as well.
Convection will likely diminish tonight as it spreads east of the
confined surface-based buoyancy plume deeper into WI.

...NE/IA...
A conditional supercell threat will exist across portions of
northern to western IA along the surface cold front centered on
early evening, in the wake of decaying elevated activity approaching
the region. Isolated thunderstorms are more probable into the
southwest NE area where MLCIN will be minimal at peak heating, along
the western extent of the central Great Plains buoyancy plume.
Weaker deep-layer shear should tend to favor a more marginal
intensity threat this far west. 

...NC/southern VA...
A weak and wavy surface warm front has drifted north into far
southwest VA and northeast NC, in advance of a low-amplitude
shortwave impulse over the Upper OH Valley. The southern fringe of
modestly stronger mid-level westerlies (represented by effective
bulk shear near 30 kt) will overlie the baroclinic zone, where there
will be some enhancement to low-level hodograph curvature (0-1 km
SRH around 100 m2/s2). Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, a mix of
multicell clusters and transient supercells are expected across the
baroclinic zone through about dusk. A brief weak tornado and
isolated damaging wind gusts in water-loaded downdrafts will be
possible.  

...Southern AZ...
The next perturbation within the monsoonal moisture plume is aiding
morning thunderstorms over a portion of northwest Sonora and will
likely yield a period of mid-level drying across southeast AZ in its
wake. The midlevel drying and reduction in clouds will aid surface
heating, but also casts some doubt on how widespread convection will
be across the higher terrain in southeast AZ this afternoon. 15-20
kt southeasterly mid-level steering flow will support potential for
isolated cells and small clusters to spread across the lower deserts
of south-central AZ through about dusk with isolated severe wind
gusts possible.

...Lower CO Valley to OR...
Very isolated severe wind gusts are possible in pulse microbursts,
but overall coverage is anticipated to be less than 5 percent over
such a large swath around the Great Basin mid-level anticyclone.

..Grams/Lyons.. 07/31/2022