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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to
remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore
wind regime may beco*e established early next week. Elsewhere across
the country, a co*bination of widespread precipitation, cold
temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire
weather concerns.

...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast...
Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying
upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday.
This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly
beco*ing a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate
(30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA
coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great
Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This
synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to
suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the
southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However,
considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic
models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their
respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding
the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event.
As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this
forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored
given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast.

..Moore.. 01/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)