SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND...
Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated
area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on
the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well.
While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind
gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will co*pensate leading to
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated
area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill
Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline.
Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the
Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient
northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph)
and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early
morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern
Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the
central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis
and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly
surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will
support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns
across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle
and into New Mexico and Texas.
...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas...
Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon
relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across
portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained
around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the
last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels
are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and
relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine
fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent
was converted to a Critical area to support this risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)