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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon into
tonight across northeastern Montana into central North/South Dakota.

...Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough along the northern periphery of a western US
mid-level anticyclone will move out of southern Canada across
portions of northern MT and ND late this afternoon and evening. At
the surface, a lee trough will develop ahead of the emerging
shortwave, drawing low 60s F surface dewpoints north across the
Dakotas. Strong heating and mixing of the airmass along the surface
trough may support isolated storms this afternoon. While generally
less than 25 kt, effective shear may favor organized multi-cell
clusters with an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and or hail.
Overall confidence in severe coverage is low, but the highest
likelihood of severe wind/hail within this regime will be from
southern ND into central SD where hi-res guidance does show some
convective signal.

As the main shortwave emerges later in the evening, a cold front and
associated surface low will move from southern SK into northeastern
MT and far western ND. While poorly timed with the diurnal cycle,
strong frontal convergence may still support isolated storms along
and behind the front where low 60s F surface dewpoints should pool.
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kt of effective shear may allow
some storm organization with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and or severe hail. However, uncertainty on severe
potential/coverage remains high given the poor timing of the main
shortwave and the anafrontal nature of any convection that can
develop. 

...Southern US...
Evident on morning visible imagery, a weak quasi stationary front
will serve as a focus for another day of diurnal thunderstorms from
the southern Plains into the southeastern US. Warm and moist through
much of the lower atmosphere along and south of the boundary, the
weakly sheared airmass will support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms from eastern OK to the Carolinas. While an occasional
gust may occur with any more concentrated storm clusters, overall
predictability remains too low for the inclusion of severe
probabilities.

..Lyons/Grams.. 07/30/2022