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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA......

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind
damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast
northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur
across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley.

...Southern Atlantic Coastal States...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the
Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold
front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and
eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of
strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into
southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage
potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the
line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern
Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the
mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass
over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet.
RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse
rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this
reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to
easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe
wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast
soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as
well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that
develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The
threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as
the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South
Carolina.

...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will
move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot
mid-level jet will acco*pany the trough, spreading strong
large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the
system, some surface heating will take place today across the
Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to
develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the
instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should
enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough.
Steep low-level lapse rates co*bined with 40 to 50 knots of flow
just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts.
In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near
300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The
isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late
morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the
region.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024