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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this
evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the
central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2
intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70
mph will also be possible.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast
Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough,
a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and
central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from
western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana,
along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis
of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to
upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE
ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000
J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a
40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS.
Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet
in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this
evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with
0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for
tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will
be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out
ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with
embedded supercells within the line.

The linear MCS, acco*panied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will
continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening.
By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western
Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The
potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue
along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night.
By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia
southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind
gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 12/29/2024